Monday, February 29, 2016

Mistake Free Trading


Traders should strive towards 100% mistake free trading.

What is considered a trading mistake?………...

Straying away from your written rules.

The biggest possible mistake is not having written rules to begin with.

*losing can be a success, winning can sometimes be a mistake.

Why write rues?………...

You do not trade the markets. You can only trade your beliefs about the markets.—Van K. Tharp

2 great links:


Great Seth Godin article from this Sunday

Monday, February 22, 2016

Price is King

I come from the mindset of “here and now.” The question I ask myself is, “what is the price doing at this very moment?” I never put my money on a prediction, I plainly react to price action.


Generalized philosophy: If price starts to have meaningful movement, I will bet on that movement and assume it will continue in that direction until it no longer does.  


If one could predict exactly how markets would move, it still wouldn't guarantee success. Without a specific strategy encompassing timeframe(s), entries, exits, position sizing and risk management, the chances of winning in markets are slim.       
 

  • The 2 most important things are position sizing and risk management.  
  • The very least important thing is the entry. Successful trading can exist with many different entry points.

Monday, February 15, 2016

273 Pages of Gold


“The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.”


This quote is from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator; a gem of a book that is stuffed with profound trading lessons.


This book is a brilliant reminder that throughout time, markets don't change and neither do the people who trade in markets.   

For under $15, you can buy this on Amazon and learn the lessons that traders had to pay millions of dollars for in “market tuition.” 

The best investment is one in yourself.

Monday, February 8, 2016

Size Matters: Position Sizing Strategy


When trading in markets, “how much” you buy makes a big difference.

If you're going to buy shares of Facebook, how many shares do you buy? Do you buy an arbitrary 100 shares? Or as much as $5000 will get you?

Everyone wants to pick the big winner, but it's more important to focus on keeping losses contained to specific parameters.

In a quantified system, there is no room for “hope.” Nobody knows what the future looks like; FB shares could be trading at $1 next year.

Here is how I would trade FB in a $100,000 trading account:

FBs current price is $99.75
First, I would risk 1% net assets per trade, so $1000 risk per trade.  

Next, I would determine when I would sell FB. I like to use the bottom range of a 20-period Donchian Channel on a 5-year chart on Barchart.com, which is $85.72 (if you want to know this process in depth, I can walk you through it).

Then, I would find my initial position size by dividing my risk($1000) by the difference between the entry price and the exit price($99.75-$85.72=$14.03).
Position size=$1000/$14.03
=71.27
Position size=71 shares@$99.75/share equaling $7082. Although this one FB trade takes up 7.08% of equity, I’m only willing to lose 1% of equity.

Its not as if I’m buying $1000 of FB stock, or 10 shares, and leaving the trade alone. I know when I'm exiting the trade before I even enter, and I know how much I’m willing to lose per trade. Position sizing is just a function of how much I’m willing to let a stock move relative to how much I’m willing to allow my account to move.
The 20-period Donchian Channel used to determine the initial exit price also acts as a trailing stop-loss. As FB moves up far enough, so does the exit price--to ensure a profit.

*This is not an endorsement to buy FB.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Momentum in the Stock Market


I used a simple stock screener from Finviz.com to find stocks near 52-week Highs and 52-Week lows.

Sectors/Industries in the Highs list:
REITs: Real Estate Investment Trusts.  
Electric/Gas/Water Utilities.
Processed and Packaged Foods.
Restaurants.
Cigarettes.  
Big Cap Tech: FB, GOOGL, MSFT


Sectors/Industries in the Lows list:
Biotech.  
Foreign Regional Banks.
Independent Oil and Gas.
Industrial Metals and Minerals.
Small Cap Tech.
Oil/Gas Drilling/Exploration.
Oil and Gas Pipelines.
Railroads.

Food, water, shelter….Facebook and cigarettes are undeniably killing it.

Many biotech names are deflating, anything oil-related is hurting, and foreign currencies are slumping relative to the USD.

Will these trends continue? I cannot say, but the numbers don't lie, the trends are in.  
*Try the screener: http://finviz.com/screener.ashx